[!todo] Seed note. A starting point, not a finished note yet.
The term premium is the compensation a buyer demands for locking money into a long-maturity bond rather than rolling a series of short ones, on top of the average expected path of short rates. It is not observed directly; it is backed out by models like the New York Fed’s ACM decomposition, which split a long yield into “expected future short rates” plus “term premium.” It matters because the Fed sets the short rate but the term premium is driven by supply, fiscal deficits, inflation uncertainty, and global demand for safe assets, so long yields can rise even while the Fed cuts. In 2026 a large deficit and heavy issuance are the forces pushing it up. Seeded from Economic and Geopolitical Risk Scenarios for the Next 3 Months; related to Inflation Risk Premium and Bond Duration.