[!todo] Seed note. A starting point, not a finished note yet.
AI circular financing describes capital that cycles inside a small cluster of firms that simultaneously fund, supply, and buy from one another. The textbook 2025-2026 example: Nvidia takes a stake in OpenAI, OpenAI commits to build on Oracle data centers, Oracle buys Nvidia chips, and several of them touch CoreWeave. The two systemic risks are reflexive demand, where one firm slowing investment drops revenue across the whole loop at once, and mispriced capacity, where capex is justified by internal signals rather than independent market validation. It is the mechanism behind worries that 2026’s $600 billion-plus hyperscaler capex overstates real end-demand. Seeded from Economic and Geopolitical Risk Scenarios for the Next 3 Months.